Robert J. Rhee
One of the most disturbing aspects of the financial industry bailout was the AIG bailout. Controversy ensued when news broke that counterparties to AIG in derivative transactions were receiving a large portion of the historic bailout through full payment on their contracts. A bailout may have been the least worst choice at the time, but many people, including me, asked why these counterparties (Wall Street firms) were not taking a discount on their contracts, i.e., share the pain with everyone else. (My March 2009 opinion editorial in the National Law Journal is available at http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202429172527). The point was obvious to the public: "One needn't have the acumen of a Goldman Sachs chief executive officer or a Treasury secretary to know that the capital provider of a distressed firm has enormous bargaining leverage. Contracts can be torn up and obligations restructured. . . . Did the government coerce valuational concessions from AIG's creditors and executives before committing to the bailout?" The New York Times reports today that the government's failure to coerce concessions from AIG's creditors was not due to negligence, but was an intentional policy decision. See http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/30/business/30aig.html?hp=&pagewanted=all. The NYT reports: "The documents also indicate that regulators ignored recommendations from their own advisers to force the banks to accept losses on their A.I.G. deals and instead paid the banks in full for the contracts. That decision, say critics of the A.I.G. bailout, has cost taxpayers billions of extra dollars in payments to the banks." Additionally, the government coerced AIG to waive potential legal rights against the counterparties. Since the US government is the largest investor in AIG, this forced concession from AIG further benefited the counterparties at the expense of taypayers.
One way to understand the AIG bailout is a bailout of AIG. As I have suggested before, a better view is this: "The AIG bailout is a wealth transfer scheme in the guise of a public investment in a supposedly going concern." Because AIG was so deeply interconnected through its derivatives transaction, it served as a conduit to pump public funds directly into Wall Street firms without taking further equity stakes in these firms through TARP, politically convenient perhaps. Of course, this explanation still does not answer the question why the government did not require these firms to share the pain.
"Are these counterparties being bailed out because, in Fitzgeraldian terms, they are different from you and me?" Just this month, the Congressional Oversight Panel released the report, The AIG Rescue, Its Impact on Markets, and the Government's Exit Strategy, report available at http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-061010-report.pdf. This report provides the government's account: "Secretary Geithner later testified that he believed that payment in full to all AIG counterparties was necessary to stop a panic. In short, the government chose not to exercise its substantial negotiating leverage to protect taxpayers or to maintain basic market discipline." But the congressional report goes on to conclude: "But if the effort had succeeded, the impact on market confidence would have been extraordinary, and the savings to taxpayers would have been immense. Asking for shared sacrifice among AIG‟s counterparties might also have provoked substantial opposition from Wall Street. Nonetheless, more aggressive efforts to protect taxpayers and to maintain market discipline, even if such efforts had failed, might have increased the government‟s credibility and persuaded the public that the extraordinary actions that followed were undertaken to protect them."
Lastly, in light of the obvious giveaway, many people, including me, asked at the controversey whether anyone seriously thought the government will recoup its full investment, let alone a decent return on taxpayer funds. We now have some answers. The June 2010 Congressional Oversight Panel's report concludes: "Even at this late stage, it remains unclear whether taxpayers will ever be repaid in full." The current Congressionl Budget Office estimate of the government's loss on the AIG bailout is $36 billion. It is now clear that much of this loss was avoidable.